By Joel D Adriano
Asian Time Online
Mar 3, 2010
MANILA - The presidential race between Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III and Senator Manuel Villar Jr has tightened in recent voter surveys, promising a photo-finish when the Philippines goes to the polls on May 10.
While the soft-spoken Aquino has the popularity of his deceased reformist parents, particularly the well-loved president Corazon "Cory" Aquino, the flashy Villar has a personal fortune made in real estate that he has used liberally to buy a deluge of television spots and other political advertisements that promote his candidacy.
The latest Pulse Asia survey showed the two candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Aquino garnering 37% and Villar 35% of potential votes. In a similar Social Weather Station (SWS) survey, Aquino leads Villar 42% to 35%. Both opinion polls show Villar fast closing on what was earlier a huge lead for Aquino, including a 27% edge in a November SWS survey.
Political analysts attribute Villar's rising ratings to a vigorous marketing campaign, including valuable endorsements among star-struck voters from popular comedians and television news personalities.
With a billion pesos (US$22 million) in television ad spending, Villar has become one of the country's biggest advertisers, topping big corporate advertisers such as Mead Johnson, Kraft Food and San Miguel Corporation, according to monitoring agency Nielsen Median, though without divulging actual figures.
Roberto Cadiz, executive director of Libertas, a consortium that monitors spending of presidential candidates, said Villar spent 1.02 billion pesos in the three months spanning November to January. That amount, he says, was four times larger than Aquino's 268 million pesos.
Analysts say Villar's ads are more sophisticated, including a catchy ditty that has helped make him a household name among voters. Political analyst Ramon Casiple notes that Villar's advertisements have also played up his personal rags-to-riches story, a personal narrative that has deep resonance in a country where over the half of the population rate themselves as poor.
In his ads, Villar has said that he acutely understands the plight of the poverty stricken, having himself risen from humble beginnings in Tondo, one of the poorest sections of Manila. He also takes populist aim at his rival Aquino, often saying that his (Villar's) rise to the top wasn't paved through the birthright and privilege of an established political family.
Villar often touts himself as a "self-made billionaire" who started out as a shrimp vendor in Divisoria, a popular Manila wet market for bargain hunters, before making his fortune in real estate.
Critics note that his marriage to Cynthia Aguilar, a member of the landed rich and powerful politically Aguilar clan, aided his entrepreneurial climb. Through his various housing ventures, Villar has established his clan as one of the 10 richest in the Philippines, according to a ranking compiled by Forbes magazine.
At the same time, Villar has come under criticism for his free-spending ways. Apart from the billion spent on political advertisements, before the official election season began on February 9 Villar's team had taken to raffling big-ticket prizes, including houses, land lots and mobile phones, to drum up popular support for his candidacy.
He recently landed in hot water with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for allegedly handing out dozens of 70,000 pesos scholarships during a concert event on February 25. Comelec has suggested he could be liable for vote-buying and disqualified from the race for the publicity stunt. Villar's team claims any charges would be invalid because his daughter handed out the scholarships and Villar did not overtly campaign for votes at the event.
Villar has justified his huge campaign expenses, estimated by some at 3 billion pesos and counting, by noting he is spending his own money and thus will not be beholden to any particular interest group if he secures the presidency.
Critics claim his liberal use of money has papered over weaknesses in his candidacy. In particular, they contend that his hiring of well-known media figures to his campaign team has compensated for his weak communications and helped to ensure positive news coverage.
His free-flowing resources have also brought together strange political bedfellows under his Nacionalista Party. Most notably former political foes such as Ilocos Norte representative Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and militant left-leaning leaders Satur Ocampo and Lisa Masa are now running together under the same party banner.
Some also wonder whether Villar has struck a behind-the-scenes alliance with incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The scandal-plagued Arroyo has stumped for her Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro Jr, but her administration's unprecedented unpopularity has buried his candidacy at a distant fourth in recent opinion polls, lagging behind even former president and criminal convict Joseph Estrada.
Road to riches
Villar has stood accused by the senate of receiving big business benefits from the Arroyo administration, including an apparently redirected road project, known locally as C-5. According to the senate committee that investigated the controversy, the government was disadvantaged to the tune of 6 billion pesos when Villar allegedly schemed to have the road made longer than originally planned to pass through one of his land holdings, purportedly to improve the value of his real estate properties.
The senate has asked Villar to reimburse 6.1 billion pesos for the alleged irregularities, which to date Villar has refused to acknowledge. Critics say Villar's refusal to attend senate hearings and his claims that the charges are "politically motivated" are similar to the tactics Arroyo has deployed when confronted with alleged corruption in her government. Villar says he has answered all relevant questions on the case on his personal website and maintains that the project benefited the public.
So far the complicated C-5 scandal has not captured the national imagination as much as Villar's advertisements. Meanwhile, Aquino continues to face criticism from left-leaning groups - some allied with Villar - for his late mother's unfulfilled promise to redistribute land from the 6,453 hectare Hacienda Luisita sugar plantation. Aquino has maintained he intends to honor that pledge, but hedges by noting he is only a .04% minority shareholder in the huge landholding.
Hacienda Luisita has long been in dire financial straits due to its policy of paying employees throughout the year despite the seasonality of sugar crops, according to agriculture policy expert Fermin Adriano. He said that the plantation's outmoded milling and production facilities are uncompetitive compared with many foreign operators. But if the lands were redistributed to farmers, most would likely sell the land to property developers, including potentially Villar's companies, because of the high value of real estate in the area.
Aquino's message on alleviating poverty is more subtle, if not more difficult to comprehend, than Villar's more populist posturing. Aquino has maintained that poverty and the lack of basic services can be best solved through honest leadership - a not-so-subtle jab at Villar's corruption troubles in the senate. The 50-year-old bachelor has vowed "not to steal" in his less prominent political advertisements, and has played up the notion that he lives a clean and simple life.
Villar has in response criticized Aquino for his lack of political accomplishments and for free-riding on the memories of his revered parents, People Power icon and former president Cory Aquino and martyred opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr, who was famously assassinated at the height of Marcos' oppression. Analysts say Aquino's lack of experience amid the push-and-pull of a hotly contested campaign has also impacted on his narrowing lead in polls.
In several instances his off-the-cuff statements, including an intimation that surveys can be bought on the cheap, have redounded negatively on his own campaign. In other instances he has had to flip-flop on policy pledges, including a vow not to raise taxes, after market analysts reacted negatively to the policy's fiscal implications.
While the more skillful Villar has remained vague and evasive on many pressing issues, Aquino has come off as more focused and committal. Analysts say Villar is telling audiences what they want to hear without providing any substance to his proposals, astutely to avoid offending any segment of his politically varied supporters.
The more straight-shooting Aquino, on the other hand, risks losing the support of crucial constituencies, including the highly influential Catholic Church, for taking clear and strong positions on divisive issues, including his support for the controversial reproductive health bill now in congress.
With corruption charges hounding Villar, many believe Aquino would shy from any conflicts of interest that could sully the image and legacy of his deceased, reformist parents. After nine years of Arroyo's scandal-plagued and rights-abusing administration, Filipino voters are clearly ready for a new political start. But it's not clear yet whether they believe the straight-laced Aquino or wheeling-dealing Villar represents the better way ahead.
While the soft-spoken Aquino has the popularity of his deceased reformist parents, particularly the well-loved president Corazon "Cory" Aquino, the flashy Villar has a personal fortune made in real estate that he has used liberally to buy a deluge of television spots and other political advertisements that promote his candidacy.
The latest Pulse Asia survey showed the two candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Aquino garnering 37% and Villar 35% of potential votes. In a similar Social Weather Station (SWS) survey, Aquino leads Villar 42% to 35%. Both opinion polls show Villar fast closing on what was earlier a huge lead for Aquino, including a 27% edge in a November SWS survey.
Political analysts attribute Villar's rising ratings to a vigorous marketing campaign, including valuable endorsements among star-struck voters from popular comedians and television news personalities.
With a billion pesos (US$22 million) in television ad spending, Villar has become one of the country's biggest advertisers, topping big corporate advertisers such as Mead Johnson, Kraft Food and San Miguel Corporation, according to monitoring agency Nielsen Median, though without divulging actual figures.
Roberto Cadiz, executive director of Libertas, a consortium that monitors spending of presidential candidates, said Villar spent 1.02 billion pesos in the three months spanning November to January. That amount, he says, was four times larger than Aquino's 268 million pesos.
Analysts say Villar's ads are more sophisticated, including a catchy ditty that has helped make him a household name among voters. Political analyst Ramon Casiple notes that Villar's advertisements have also played up his personal rags-to-riches story, a personal narrative that has deep resonance in a country where over the half of the population rate themselves as poor.
In his ads, Villar has said that he acutely understands the plight of the poverty stricken, having himself risen from humble beginnings in Tondo, one of the poorest sections of Manila. He also takes populist aim at his rival Aquino, often saying that his (Villar's) rise to the top wasn't paved through the birthright and privilege of an established political family.
Villar often touts himself as a "self-made billionaire" who started out as a shrimp vendor in Divisoria, a popular Manila wet market for bargain hunters, before making his fortune in real estate.
Critics note that his marriage to Cynthia Aguilar, a member of the landed rich and powerful politically Aguilar clan, aided his entrepreneurial climb. Through his various housing ventures, Villar has established his clan as one of the 10 richest in the Philippines, according to a ranking compiled by Forbes magazine.
At the same time, Villar has come under criticism for his free-spending ways. Apart from the billion spent on political advertisements, before the official election season began on February 9 Villar's team had taken to raffling big-ticket prizes, including houses, land lots and mobile phones, to drum up popular support for his candidacy.
He recently landed in hot water with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for allegedly handing out dozens of 70,000 pesos scholarships during a concert event on February 25. Comelec has suggested he could be liable for vote-buying and disqualified from the race for the publicity stunt. Villar's team claims any charges would be invalid because his daughter handed out the scholarships and Villar did not overtly campaign for votes at the event.
Villar has justified his huge campaign expenses, estimated by some at 3 billion pesos and counting, by noting he is spending his own money and thus will not be beholden to any particular interest group if he secures the presidency.
Critics claim his liberal use of money has papered over weaknesses in his candidacy. In particular, they contend that his hiring of well-known media figures to his campaign team has compensated for his weak communications and helped to ensure positive news coverage.
His free-flowing resources have also brought together strange political bedfellows under his Nacionalista Party. Most notably former political foes such as Ilocos Norte representative Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and militant left-leaning leaders Satur Ocampo and Lisa Masa are now running together under the same party banner.
Some also wonder whether Villar has struck a behind-the-scenes alliance with incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The scandal-plagued Arroyo has stumped for her Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro Jr, but her administration's unprecedented unpopularity has buried his candidacy at a distant fourth in recent opinion polls, lagging behind even former president and criminal convict Joseph Estrada.
Road to riches
Villar has stood accused by the senate of receiving big business benefits from the Arroyo administration, including an apparently redirected road project, known locally as C-5. According to the senate committee that investigated the controversy, the government was disadvantaged to the tune of 6 billion pesos when Villar allegedly schemed to have the road made longer than originally planned to pass through one of his land holdings, purportedly to improve the value of his real estate properties.
The senate has asked Villar to reimburse 6.1 billion pesos for the alleged irregularities, which to date Villar has refused to acknowledge. Critics say Villar's refusal to attend senate hearings and his claims that the charges are "politically motivated" are similar to the tactics Arroyo has deployed when confronted with alleged corruption in her government. Villar says he has answered all relevant questions on the case on his personal website and maintains that the project benefited the public.
So far the complicated C-5 scandal has not captured the national imagination as much as Villar's advertisements. Meanwhile, Aquino continues to face criticism from left-leaning groups - some allied with Villar - for his late mother's unfulfilled promise to redistribute land from the 6,453 hectare Hacienda Luisita sugar plantation. Aquino has maintained he intends to honor that pledge, but hedges by noting he is only a .04% minority shareholder in the huge landholding.
Hacienda Luisita has long been in dire financial straits due to its policy of paying employees throughout the year despite the seasonality of sugar crops, according to agriculture policy expert Fermin Adriano. He said that the plantation's outmoded milling and production facilities are uncompetitive compared with many foreign operators. But if the lands were redistributed to farmers, most would likely sell the land to property developers, including potentially Villar's companies, because of the high value of real estate in the area.
Aquino's message on alleviating poverty is more subtle, if not more difficult to comprehend, than Villar's more populist posturing. Aquino has maintained that poverty and the lack of basic services can be best solved through honest leadership - a not-so-subtle jab at Villar's corruption troubles in the senate. The 50-year-old bachelor has vowed "not to steal" in his less prominent political advertisements, and has played up the notion that he lives a clean and simple life.
Villar has in response criticized Aquino for his lack of political accomplishments and for free-riding on the memories of his revered parents, People Power icon and former president Cory Aquino and martyred opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr, who was famously assassinated at the height of Marcos' oppression. Analysts say Aquino's lack of experience amid the push-and-pull of a hotly contested campaign has also impacted on his narrowing lead in polls.
In several instances his off-the-cuff statements, including an intimation that surveys can be bought on the cheap, have redounded negatively on his own campaign. In other instances he has had to flip-flop on policy pledges, including a vow not to raise taxes, after market analysts reacted negatively to the policy's fiscal implications.
While the more skillful Villar has remained vague and evasive on many pressing issues, Aquino has come off as more focused and committal. Analysts say Villar is telling audiences what they want to hear without providing any substance to his proposals, astutely to avoid offending any segment of his politically varied supporters.
The more straight-shooting Aquino, on the other hand, risks losing the support of crucial constituencies, including the highly influential Catholic Church, for taking clear and strong positions on divisive issues, including his support for the controversial reproductive health bill now in congress.
With corruption charges hounding Villar, many believe Aquino would shy from any conflicts of interest that could sully the image and legacy of his deceased, reformist parents. After nine years of Arroyo's scandal-plagued and rights-abusing administration, Filipino voters are clearly ready for a new political start. But it's not clear yet whether they believe the straight-laced Aquino or wheeling-dealing Villar represents the better way ahead.
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