Odd bedfellows in the Philippines

By Fabio Scarpello 

Asian Time Online

MANILA - Presidential hopeful Manuel "Manny" Villar's strategic alliance with left-wing parties associated with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the political arm of the rebel New People's Army (NPA), has upset the military and sown ideological divisions in the country's Maoist rebel movement.

Villar, currently trailing presidential frontrunner Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino by a narrow margin in opinion polls, has made courting the political left a key strategy in his campaign to build alliances that can deliver votes. National elections are scheduled to take place on May 10.

Villar has built high-profile bridges with well-known leftists, Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza, who represent respectively the Bayan Muna party and the Gabriela party, which are both affiliated with the CPP. They are both running as guest senatorial candidates under Villar's Nationalista Party Coalition.
In exchange, they have given Villar the support of the Makabayan organization, an umbrella group of eight left-leaning parties whose various chapters are now actively campaigning for his presidential bid. The CPP and its allied parties have potential sway over three million votes, a significant bloc considering the 2004 presidential polls were decided by just over one million votes.

The political alliance marks the first time since the restoration of democracy in 1986 that the CPP has officially supported presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Some analysts say that the move fits within a long-established CPP expedient tendency to build tactical alliances or short-term coalitions to further its movement.

The CPP has implemented a three-pronged approach to its four-decade long struggle to change the Philippines into a Maoist state. Apart from the NPA's armed uprising, the movement has over the years deployed mass movements and participated in parliamentary elections to further its ideological agenda in the mainstream political arena.

Party insiders believe that many of the CPP-affiliated parties will sever ties with Villar, a billionaire property developer, as soon as the election is finished. They believe that the alliance is a straight exchange: money for votes, including substantial funds to the CPP treasury and contributions to Ocampo's and Maza's election campaigns.

Villar has publicly denied making the contributions, but his claims have failed to convince sections of the politically influential army. The military is believed to be split concerning its preferred candidates, but outgoing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has backed the candidacy of Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, a former defense secretary in her administration.

A source at the Department of National Defense told Asia Times Online that "senior military officers are furious [about the alleged contributions] and they will not forgive Villar".

The source added that "a coup cannot be ruled out if Villar is elected". Other members of the military and intelligence services said similarly that the Villar-CPP tactical alliance had been coolly received throughout the armed forces. However, they ruled out any military intervention in politics should Villar be elected.

One root of the military's frustration is the possibility that some of the alleged contributions to the CPP may have been channeled to its affiliated NPA and used to buy weapons and ammunition. "How can a potential president arm those that shoot soldiers?" said a source within the military.

Under Arroyo, the army undertook a multi-year offensive against the NPA which it claims to have diminished the NPA's arsenal and numbers. According to the military, the NPA's strength declined from a peak of 25,200 foot soldiers in 1987 to just 4,702 in 2009.

The armed group, situated nationwide with strongholds in Bicol, Luzon and non-Muslim Mindanao, is nonetheless still capable of inflicting damage and stirring instability, say security analysts. Though there are several different Muslim insurgencies in the southern regions, the government still considers the NPA to be the single main threat to national security.

Peace overture
Villar has said that if elected he will bid to restart peace negotiations with the Maoist group that stalled in 2004. He argues that the insurgency is a result of poverty and that as president he would redouble efforts to address this issue.

In an e-mail message to ATol, Villar said that "everybody's help is needed, the House of Representatives, local government and the senate. The last group will include [candidates] Satur and Liza hopefully."

The left's alliance with Villar, however, has sown divisions within the Maoist movement - and not just over the ideological issue of joining hands with a high-rolling capitalist. Villar's coalition currently includes Ariel Querubin, a former marine colonel detained for his alleged involvement in an attempt to overthrow the Arroyo administration in 2006, and Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

These competing ties are known to be frowned on by some CPP and NPA members, particularly elder members who were targeted during Marcos' martial law period and remain committed to the ideological fight against Manila.

Many within the movement would have preferred to join electoral forces with Aquino, whose mother, the late former president Corazon Aquino, freed several CPP members, including party founder Jose Maria Sison, in a 1986 amnesty that coincided with the People's Power-driven ouster of Marcos.

"Ocampo and Maza, like the rest of the left-wing pro-CPP, have in the past also attracted the votes of non-communists that supported them because of their people-oriented policies," said a former CPP member who maintains ties to the movement.

"This alliance is likely to discourage these people from voting for them. Villar is not exactly seen as a left-wing candidate and the money transaction that has taken place is off-putting. Aquino would have been better."

There are indications that the CPP had flirted with joining Aquino's Liberal Party-led coalition, but the unresolved dispute between farmers of his partially family-owned Hacienda Luisita plantation estate prevented an accord. Aquino and other Liberal Party leaders also could not guarantee that they would accommodate the left's nominees into the party's senatorial lineup.

The CPP endorsed Villar on December 24, 2009, two days before its 41st founding anniversary - when self-exiled leader Sison said in a statement released from the Netherlands that among the four major presidential candidates in next year's polls, Villar "seems to be the most patriotic and progressive".

The CPP has since praised Villar for advocating the interests of Filipino businessmen, expressing sympathy for workers and peasants and condemning human-rights violations.

Sison reiterated his position recently in an interview with Bulatlat, a Filipino magazine sympathetic to the CPP, in which he said that "Manny Villar offers the relatively better program, which unfortunately has been underplayed during the campaign".

At the same time, he labelled Aquino and his running mate, Mar Roxas, as "rabid exponents of the US-dictated policy of neo-liberal globalization". Whether such ideological claims will be enough to win votes and put Villar ahead of Aquino at the upcoming polls is yet to be seen. 

Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/Odd-bedfellows-in-the-Philippines.html

A two-horse race in the Philippines

By Joel D Adriano 

Asian Time Online

Mar 3, 2010

MANILA - The presidential race between Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III and Senator Manuel Villar Jr has tightened in recent voter surveys, promising a photo-finish when the Philippines goes to the polls on May 10.

While the soft-spoken Aquino has the popularity of his deceased reformist parents, particularly the well-loved president Corazon "Cory" Aquino, the flashy Villar has a personal fortune made in real estate that he has used liberally to buy a deluge of television spots and other political advertisements that promote his candidacy.

The latest Pulse Asia survey showed the two candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Aquino garnering 37% and Villar 35% of potential votes. In a similar Social Weather Station (SWS) survey, Aquino leads Villar 42% to 35%. Both opinion polls show Villar fast closing on what was earlier a huge lead for Aquino, including a 27% edge in a November SWS survey.

Political analysts attribute Villar's rising ratings to a vigorous marketing campaign, including valuable endorsements among star-struck voters from popular comedians and television news personalities.

With a billion pesos (US$22 million) in television ad spending, Villar has become one of the country's biggest advertisers, topping big corporate advertisers such as Mead Johnson, Kraft Food and San Miguel Corporation, according to monitoring agency Nielsen Median, though without divulging actual figures.

Roberto Cadiz, executive director of Libertas, a consortium that monitors spending of presidential candidates, said Villar spent 1.02 billion pesos in the three months spanning November to January. That amount, he says, was four times larger than Aquino's 268 million pesos.

Analysts say Villar's ads are more sophisticated, including a catchy ditty that has helped make him a household name among voters. Political analyst Ramon Casiple notes that Villar's advertisements have also played up his personal rags-to-riches story, a personal narrative that has deep resonance in a country where over the half of the population rate themselves as poor.

In his ads, Villar has said that he acutely understands the plight of the poverty stricken, having himself risen from humble beginnings in Tondo, one of the poorest sections of Manila. He also takes populist aim at his rival Aquino, often saying that his (Villar's) rise to the top wasn't paved through the birthright and privilege of an established political family.

Villar often touts himself as a "self-made billionaire" who started out as a shrimp vendor in Divisoria, a popular Manila wet market for bargain hunters, before making his fortune in real estate.

Critics note that his marriage to Cynthia Aguilar, a member of the landed rich and powerful politically Aguilar clan, aided his entrepreneurial climb. Through his various housing ventures, Villar has established his clan as one of the 10 richest in the Philippines, according to a ranking compiled by Forbes magazine.
At the same time, Villar has come under criticism for his free-spending ways. Apart from the billion spent on political advertisements, before the official election season began on February 9 Villar's team had taken to raffling big-ticket prizes, including houses, land lots and mobile phones, to drum up popular support for his candidacy.

He recently landed in hot water with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for allegedly handing out dozens of 70,000 pesos scholarships during a concert event on February 25. Comelec has suggested he could be liable for vote-buying and disqualified from the race for the publicity stunt. Villar's team claims any charges would be invalid because his daughter handed out the scholarships and Villar did not overtly campaign for votes at the event.

Villar has justified his huge campaign expenses, estimated by some at 3 billion pesos and counting, by noting he is spending his own money and thus will not be beholden to any particular interest group if he secures the presidency.

Critics claim his liberal use of money has papered over weaknesses in his candidacy. In particular, they contend that his hiring of well-known media figures to his campaign team has compensated for his weak communications and helped to ensure positive news coverage.

His free-flowing resources have also brought together strange political bedfellows under his Nacionalista Party. Most notably former political foes such as Ilocos Norte representative Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and militant left-leaning leaders Satur Ocampo and Lisa Masa are now running together under the same party banner.

Some also wonder whether Villar has struck a behind-the-scenes alliance with incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The scandal-plagued Arroyo has stumped for her Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro Jr, but her administration's unprecedented unpopularity has buried his candidacy at a distant fourth in recent opinion polls, lagging behind even former president and criminal convict Joseph Estrada.

Road to riches
Villar has stood accused by the senate of receiving big business benefits from the Arroyo administration, including an apparently redirected road project, known locally as C-5. According to the senate committee that investigated the controversy, the government was disadvantaged to the tune of 6 billion pesos when Villar allegedly schemed to have the road made longer than originally planned to pass through one of his land holdings, purportedly to improve the value of his real estate properties.

The senate has asked Villar to reimburse 6.1 billion pesos for the alleged irregularities, which to date Villar has refused to acknowledge. Critics say Villar's refusal to attend senate hearings and his claims that the charges are "politically motivated" are similar to the tactics Arroyo has deployed when confronted with alleged corruption in her government. Villar says he has answered all relevant questions on the case on his personal website and maintains that the project benefited the public.

So far the complicated C-5 scandal has not captured the national imagination as much as Villar's advertisements. Meanwhile, Aquino continues to face criticism from left-leaning groups - some allied with Villar - for his late mother's unfulfilled promise to redistribute land from the 6,453 hectare Hacienda Luisita sugar plantation. Aquino has maintained he intends to honor that pledge, but hedges by noting he is only a .04% minority shareholder in the huge landholding.

Hacienda Luisita has long been in dire financial straits due to its policy of paying employees throughout the year despite the seasonality of sugar crops, according to agriculture policy expert Fermin Adriano. He said that the plantation's outmoded milling and production facilities are uncompetitive compared with many foreign operators. But if the lands were redistributed to farmers, most would likely sell the land to property developers, including potentially Villar's companies, because of the high value of real estate in the area.

Aquino's message on alleviating poverty is more subtle, if not more difficult to comprehend, than Villar's more populist posturing. Aquino has maintained that poverty and the lack of basic services can be best solved through honest leadership - a not-so-subtle jab at Villar's corruption troubles in the senate. The 50-year-old bachelor has vowed "not to steal" in his less prominent political advertisements, and has played up the notion that he lives a clean and simple life.

Villar has in response criticized Aquino for his lack of political accomplishments and for free-riding on the memories of his revered parents, People Power icon and former president Cory Aquino and martyred opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr, who was famously assassinated at the height of Marcos' oppression. Analysts say Aquino's lack of experience amid the push-and-pull of a hotly contested campaign has also impacted on his narrowing lead in polls.

In several instances his off-the-cuff statements, including an intimation that surveys can be bought on the cheap, have redounded negatively on his own campaign. In other instances he has had to flip-flop on policy pledges, including a vow not to raise taxes, after market analysts reacted negatively to the policy's fiscal implications.

While the more skillful Villar has remained vague and evasive on many pressing issues, Aquino has come off as more focused and committal. Analysts say Villar is telling audiences what they want to hear without providing any substance to his proposals, astutely to avoid offending any segment of his politically varied supporters.

The more straight-shooting Aquino, on the other hand, risks losing the support of crucial constituencies, including the highly influential Catholic Church, for taking clear and strong positions on divisive issues, including his support for the controversial reproductive health bill now in congress.

With corruption charges hounding Villar, many believe Aquino would shy from any conflicts of interest that could sully the image and legacy of his deceased, reformist parents. After nine years of Arroyo's scandal-plagued and rights-abusing administration, Filipino voters are clearly ready for a new political start. But it's not clear yet whether they believe the straight-laced Aquino or wheeling-dealing Villar represents the better way ahead. 

Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LC03Ae01.html

Philippines votes in the shadow of gunmen

By Simon Roughneen
Asian Time Online

May 11, 2010

MANILA - The ever-present shadow of violence and intimidation hangs over the 50 million voters going to the polls at the Philippines' presidential, legislative elections and local elections on Monday. The prospect of a fully free and fair election is also in question, with well-documented worries over a new partially automated voting and counting system and vote-buying seemingly omnipresent - boxing champion Manny Pacquiao last week offered 500,000 pesos (US$10,980) to a village in Mindanao if it backed his campaign for a congress seat.

The number of political killings has surged during the electoral campaign, with local clans and politicians eliminating their electoral rivals. The single worse incident came last November, when an unprecedented 57 civilians were murdered in Maguindanao in the restive southern Philippines.

By April 14, the latest date for which figures are available, 38 election candidates had been killed during the January to mid-April campaign period, according to Felix Vargas, spokesman for the government's task force on elected government officials. The figure does not include campaign workers and candidates' assistants who were killed.

Professor Rommel C Banlaoi, the director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR), told Asia Times Online that "cases of election related killings from the use of illegally armed groups have been recorded and to date numbers more than 100".

The Maguindanao atrocity made international headlines due to its grisly details, but also because it was the largest recorded mass killing of journalists in a single incident. The massacre was carried out to deter an opposition clan, the Mangudadatu family, from running in the elections against the government-backed Ampatuan clan. This case and less well-known clashes in the southern Philippines and elsewhere illustrate how elections raise the stakes for volatile local bigwig rivalries. With patronage links to the center at stake, the prospect of elections intensifies rido, the term for honor-driven violence and vengeful clan feuding in the region.

The fallout from the Maguindanao case continues, highlighting links between political violence and the powers that be. Justice Secretary Alberto Agra sparked a massive public outcry when he cleared Zaldy and Akmad Ampatuan of involvement in the massacre. In a statement last Wednesday, he reversed his decision.

"I am now convinced that there is probable cause in so far as Zaldy Ampatuan and Akmad Ampatuan are concerned," he said after officials at his department confronted him with fresh evidence. The about-turn might be linked to the elections, with the unpopular outgoing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo possibly seeking to distance her administration from the Ampatuans as she prepares for an expected career in congress.

After the massacre, the Ampatuans were booted out of Arroyo's Lakas-Campi party, whose former presidential candidate, Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, is languishing with only 9% of popular support according to latest opinion surveys. That figure puts him well behind third-placed Manuel "Manny" Villar (19%), former president Joseph "Erap" Estrada on 20%, and clear leader Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III on 42%.

Elections in the Philippines have a history of unpredictability, and some candidates say they will take to the streets if there are question marks over the new computerized voting process.

While there may be immediate post-election violence in the longer term it seems unlikely that the election will reverse the proliferation of private armed militias. The number of private armies jumped from 68 in December to 117 in February, according to Dante Jimenez, a member of the Zenarosa Commission, which was established by Arroyo a month after the Maguindanao incident to address the issue of private armed groups.

Jessica Evans, a Human Rights Watch fellow based in Manila, said Villar has ruled out curbing these groups if he is elected, citing the need to improve social spending in one of Asia's most unequal, poverty-stricken countries. She said Aquino has been non-committal on the issue, despite the apparent animus between him and incumbent Arroyo, who has clear links to the Ampatuans and other clans.

Since it was established, the Zenarosa commission has had mixed appraisals. "The commission is only a fact-finding commission. Its mandate to dismantle private armies is only recommendatory and it does not have operational powers. Dismantling private armies rests largely on the capabilities of the police and the military to disarm them," said Banlaoi.

The second possibility seems unlikely, given reportedly strong links between the police and army and the private militias.

Money plays a part in sustaining the system. Some of the militias are in the pay of the country's dominant 250 or so political dynasties - a figure given by the Manila-based Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CENPEG). These clans enjoy almost total control over their constituencies and many have access to a steady flow of funds from Manila. Irrespective of who wins, these well-entrenched dynasties are likely to dominate the Philippines' political landscape. CENPEG director Bobby Tauzon told ATol that "those expected to win come mostly from old and emerging political dynasties at the national and local levels".

The state has been downplaying the realities of political or electoral violence. A police report issued in the days leading up to Monday's vote noted a reduced level of electoral violence compared with recent elections, omitting the Maguindanao incident which occurred before the official campaign period. Thirty-eight candidates killed seems little cause for celebration, but the deaths did little to dampen the carnival-like rallies and presence of dancing girls, a staple in the country's celebrity-oriented political campaigns.

Blurred lines
In the Philippines, militias are either military controlled Citizen Armed Forces Geographical Units (CAGFU), police-controlled Civilian Volunteers Organizations (CVO), or private armies recruited and maintained by businessmen and politicians. Better-known ideologically driven rebel groups such as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the communist New People's Army (NPA) are not classed as militias, though their existence is often used as a justification for private armies.

For example, Tauzon cites the now-notorious example of how the Ampatuans were armed and funded partly as a bulwark against the MILF in the south. The picture is blurred, however, as MILF or NPA personnel have been hired by some local politicians as "bodyguards", according to Banlaoi.

Links between the private militias and state security forces raise questions about the veracity of the term "private armed groups", since many are linked to the police or the military and often feature security forces doubling up as guns for hire. Many acquire weapons from the police and/or army, or are better-armed than their official counterparts.

It all adds to a culture of impunity and violence that observers say is undermining democracy in the Philippines. Arroyo, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and government-backed paramilitaries have been directly linked to a wave of political killings across the Philippines throughout the past decade. "Forced disappearances and illegal detentions remain all too common, as does the bringing of trumped up charges against Filipino activists and human-rights abuse victims," the UN Human Rights Council wrote in 2009. Since Arroyo took office in 2001, over 1,000 political murders have taken place nationwide, few of the cases ever made it to court.

Many of the victims were killed due to perceived links - often tenuous at best - with the NPA, which is also accused of political violence. While the AFP and MILF signed an electoral peace pact back in February - the MILF refuses to recognize the constitution and is boycotting the elections - the NPA has said it will attack AFP troops at polling stations. On Sunday, it was reported on Philippine TV news that the NPA destroyed five vote-counting machines in the north of Luzon.

Undaunted, millions of Filipinos will line up today in the blazing heat to cast their votes, which will then be run through the contentious computerized scanning machines. Without polling booths, voters are susceptible to intimidation in the classroom-setting of most polling stations, according to Somsri Hannanuntasuk, who is in Manila as an election observer with the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL). "There is no privacy, and it is possible to see how people are voting," she told ATol on the eve of voting.

The nullification of the secret ballot has made voters more vulnerable to the hired guns likely to be guarding precincts in many remote areas, according to Ava Avila, a researcher at the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore. "There is a possibility that some will harass voters not supporting their candidates," she said. And in an already volatile atmosphere, rural and remote areas might see worse than harassment. Five more people were shot dead on Sunday in attacks involving gunmen loyal to local candidates in the southern Mindanao region. 

Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE11Ae01.html